UC Santa Barbara
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
65  Bryan Guijarro JR 31:41
123  Anthony Ortolan JR 31:53
242  Shyan Vaziri JR 32:18
280  Bryce Rausa SR 32:25
552  Anthony Monroy SO 32:56
608  Adam Avila SO 33:02
758  Thomas Poston JR 33:16
798  Brad Littooy SO 33:20
821  Andrew Farkas JR 33:23
1,057  Jackson Bright FR 33:44
1,169  George Baier FR 33:54
1,254  Andrew Verdin SO 34:00
1,769  Patrick Bourke FR 34:40
1,831  Jack Morgenson FR 34:45
1,908  Abel Mogesse JR 34:52
National Rank #34 of 311
West Region Rank #6 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 7.1%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 3.1%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 9.0%
Top 10 in Regional 95.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Bryan Guijarro Anthony Ortolan Shyan Vaziri Bryce Rausa Anthony Monroy Adam Avila Thomas Poston Brad Littooy Andrew Farkas Jackson Bright George Baier
CSU San Bernardino 09/27 33:58
Stanford Invitational 09/27 705 31:42 32:00 32:02 32:41 33:05 33:18 33:56
ISU Pre-National Invitational (Blue Race) 10/18 683 31:21 31:51 32:27 32:32 33:37 33:00 33:27
Bronco Invitational 10/18 1140 33:15 33:17 33:41 33:29
CSU Fullerton Titan 10/24 1212 33:41
Big West Championships 11/01 680 31:50 31:51 32:23 32:18 32:42 32:51 33:25 33:28 34:10
West Region Championships 11/14 637 32:00 31:49 32:17 32:07 32:23 33:18 33:06





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 7.1% 21.4 530 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 7.3 229 0.1 1.7 7.3 29.8 23.2 16.7 11.1 5.6 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryan Guijarro 62.7% 70.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5
Anthony Ortolan 28.3% 87.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Shyan Vaziri 7.4% 134.5
Bryce Rausa 7.2% 163.5
Anthony Monroy 7.1% 215.1
Adam Avila 7.1% 226.4
Thomas Poston 7.1% 235.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryan Guijarro 18.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 4.2 3.4 3.5 4.2 3.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.3
Anthony Ortolan 27.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.3
Shyan Vaziri 44.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0
Bryce Rausa 50.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Anthony Monroy 79.4
Adam Avila 85.5
Thomas Poston 99.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3
4 1.7% 94.1% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 4
5 7.3% 74.7% 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 5.4 5
6 29.8% 0.1% 0.0 29.8 0.0 6
7 23.2% 23.2 7
8 16.7% 16.7 8
9 11.1% 11.1 9
10 5.6% 5.6 10
11 2.8% 2.8 11
12 1.1% 1.1 12
13 0.5% 0.5 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 7.1% 0.1 0.6 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 92.9 0.0 7.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 11.6% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 1.8% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0